Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Nov 23 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 506 (S22E05) and
508 (S17E20) produced several minor C-class flares. No active
regions exhibited significant development during the period. No new
regions were numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 501 (N03W57), 507 (N09E10) and 508 are capable
of producing M-class and isolated X-class flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
speed gradually increased over the period to 550 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on 24 November due to increased solar wind
speeds from a geoeffective coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
- Class M 60/60/60
- Class X 15/15/15
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 23 Nov 178
- Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 180/180/180
- 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 131
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 014/022
- Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 015/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 015/020-015/020-010/020
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 35/40/40
- Minor storm 15/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 40/40/40
- Minor storm 25/20/20
- Major-severe storm 10/05/05