Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 23, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 23 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 506 (S22E05) and
508 (S17E20) produced several minor C-class flares. No active
regions exhibited significant development during the period. No new
regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 501 (N03W57), 507 (N09E10) and 508 are capable
of producing M-class and isolated X-class flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. Solar wind
speed gradually increased over the period to 550 km/s. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active to minor storm
conditions are possible on 24 November due to increased solar wind
speeds from a geoeffective coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 15/15/15
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 23 Nov 178
  • Predicted 24 Nov-26 Nov 180/180/180
  • 90 Day Mean 23 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov 014/022
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov 015/020-015/020-010/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 35/40/40
  • Minor storm 15/10/10
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 25/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.