Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Nov 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Nov 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of
the period was an optically uncorrelated C4.6 x-ray event that
occurred at 23/0804 UTC.  Region 198 (S18W25) produced multiple low
level C-class flares during the period.  This region underwent no
significant changes in magnetic complexity or penumbral coverage
(520 millionths in areal coverage).  The remaining numbered regions
were mostly quiescent throughout the period.  No new regions were
numbered today.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class flares.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  Minor to major
storm conditions were experienced between 23/0300 to 0600 UTC due to
high speed solar wind resulting from the from the favorably
positioned coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high
levels today.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to return to predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 
Active conditions are possible (mostly at high latitudes) due to the
elevated solar wind speed through day one of the forecast period as
the effects from the coronal hole subside.

III.  Event Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Nov 148
Predicted   24 Nov-26 Nov  150/160/165
90 Day Mean        23 Nov 173

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Nov  017/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Nov  015/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Nov-26 Nov  010/015-010/012-008/010

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Nov-26 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01