Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 May 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 May 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 23 May 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The STEREO COR2 imagery
observed a CME around 23/1809Z. This CME was correlated with GOES
x-ray images originating from an area along a filament channel
located between N24W05 to N01W23. Associated with the CME was a
long duration B1 x-ray flare at 23/1801Z. Region 1072 (S15W09)
continues to grow in white light areal coverage and sunspot count
and has produced two low-level B-class flares during the period.
The region maintained a beta magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. There is a chance for a C-class flare, and a slight chance for
a M-class event, from Region 1072.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The solar wind speed continued to
average around 370 km/s through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet levels for the next three days (24-26 May).
III. Event Probabilities 24 May-26 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 May 075
Predicted 24 May-26 May 076/076/078
90 Day Mean 23 May 078
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 May 002/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 May 001/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 May-26 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 May-26 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01