Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 March 2012

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2012 Mar 23 2200 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2012

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Newly numbered Region
1445 (S24E76) rotated onto the solar disk and produced an M1 flare
at 23/1940Z as well as a C6 flare at 23/1639Z. Region 1444 (N21E37)
was numbered overnight, but is small and stable.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, mainly due to additional activity from Region 1445.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was initially unsettled, but decreased to quiet
levels after 23/0300Z. The elevated activity was caused by a solar
sector boundary crossing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels during the period.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 March).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
Class M 35/35/35
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Mar 105
Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 110/115/120
90 Day Mean 23 Mar 122

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 006/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 006/005-006/005-006/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 15/15/15
Major-severe storm 05/05/05