Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Mar 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. New Region 947 (S13W60) was classified as a Cso beta group. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very

low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next three days (24-26 March). Isolated active periods are expected on 25-26 March, with minor storm periods possible at high latitudes, due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Mar 073
• Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 078

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 001/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 008/008-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/25
• Minor storm 05/05/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/30
• Minor storm 05/10/20
• Major-severe storm 01/05/10