Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Mar 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Mar 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 082 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 862 (S07W66) decayed to approximately 60 millionths in area. A CME was detected in LASCO imagery at 22/2150 UTC off of the east limb. This CME appeared to be a backside event.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for an isolated C-flare from Region 862.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with the chance for isolated active periods. Elevated activity is due to a coronal hole high speed stream that is expected to become geoeffective on 24 March.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

• Class M 05/05/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Mar 077
• Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 080

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 009/010
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 005/006
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 008/012-008/012-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/15
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/20
• Minor storm 15/15/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01