Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Mar 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Mar 23 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 083 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Mar 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity remained low. The four disk regions grew
marginally during the past 24 hours. Only two C-class flares
occurred, at 0042 UTC from Region 578 (N15E05) and at 0725 UTC from
Region 574 (S04W25). Little else of significance was observed.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to persist at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
interval.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Mar 118
• Predicted 24 Mar-26 Mar 120/120/115
• 90 Day Mean 23 Mar 111

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Mar 008/011
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Mar 007/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Mar-26 Mar 010/010-010/010-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Mar-26 Mar

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05