Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 June 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Jun 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A long-duration C2 X-ray flare
occurred at 0750Z originating from past the west limb. A CME was
associated with the flare but is not expected to be geoeffective.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
during the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic activity is
expected to be mostly quiet during the period (24 -26 June).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 084
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 085/085/090
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 119
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 006/005-005/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05