Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Jun 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Jun 23 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 780
(S08W14) underwent continued decay in sunspot area and activity was
limited to a single B-class flare. The remainder of the disk and
limb were quiescent during the period. No new regions were numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
The storming conditions are believed to be due to a Co-rotating
Interaction Region, preceding the onset of a recurrent high speed
coronal hole stream.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Isolated major
storm conditions may be possible during the period due to the
recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun

• Class M 05/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Jun 078
• Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 080/085/085
• 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 093

• V. Geomagnetic A Indices
• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 006/007
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 030/045
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 015/020-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/35/35
• Minor storm 15/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

• Active 45/45/45
• Minor storm 20/20/20
• Major-severe storm 15/15/15