Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Jun 2004

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2004 Jun 23 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 175 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2004

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at low levels today. Region 635
(S12W40) produced several C-class flares today, the largest was a
C2/Sf that occurred at 23/0605Z. This region appears to have
underwent little change during the period and remains a
beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration. Region 634 (N12W59) has
continued to decay and has lost penumbral sunspot coverage in the
trailing portion of the region. The delta structure remains intact
in the dominant lead spot. There were no new regions numbered
today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels. Region 635 continues to exhibit the
potential to produce an M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels through 24 June. Active
conditions are expected on 25 and 26 June due to a recurrent coronal
hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
Class M 50/50/50
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 05/05/05
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jun 113
Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 110/105/100
90 Day Mean 23 Jun 102

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 001/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 003/010-008/012-010/012

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/15/20
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 20/25/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/05