Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Jun 2003
SDF Number 174 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jun 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low due to a single C1/Sf flare from
Region 388 (S01W47) at 22/2148Z. Regions 386 (S07W22), 387 (N17W03),
and 388 exhibited little change this period and produced no
significant activity. A new region emerged to the south of Region
387 and was numbered 391 (N15E03).
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. There is a slight chance for a low M-class flare
primarily from Region 386.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active with an isolated minor
storm period between 23/03-06Z. The field was disturbed due to a
high speed coronal hole stream which peaked near 600 km/s very early
in the period and has been in slow decline since. The greater than 2
MeV electrons reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be primarily unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
- Class M 25/25/25
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 05/05/05
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 23 Jun 114
- Predicted 24 Jun-26 Jun 115/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 23 Jun 126
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jun 011/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jun 020/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jun-26 Jun 012/012-012/012-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jun-26 Jun
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 30/30/25
- Minor storm 10/10/05
- Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 35/35/30
- Minor storm 15/15/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
Comments
K-indicies
The scaling problem with the Boulder magnetometer instrument has been fixed and the instrument has been redesignated as the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices.
GOES Protons
To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors – magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html.