Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 July 2010

By SpaceRef Editor
July 24, 2010
Filed under , , ,

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Today’s activity consisted
of a few B-class flares, including a B9 at 2138Z and a B9 at 1523Z,
both from Region 1089 (S24E20). Region 1089 continues to slowly
decay and simplify.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from
Region 1089.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet. Solar wind data from the ACE
spacecraft indicate elevated density during the last 4 hours of the
period, consistent with a co-rotating interaction region.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled for the first day (24 July) in response to
a favorably positioned coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled levels are
expected for the 2nd and 3rd days (25-26 July) due to persistent
effects from the coronal hole.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 086
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 083/081/080
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 075
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 004/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 005/007
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 010/010-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/20/20
Minor storm 15/10/10
Major-severe storm 05/05/05

SpaceRef staff editor.