Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Jul 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Jul 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 204 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jul 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. The STEREO
spacecraft observed a CME off of the east limb of the sun around
23/0624Z. Further analysis shows this to be from old Region 1024
(S26, L248) which is due to return to the disk on 25 July.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Observations from the
ACE spacecraft indicate the earth continues under the influence of
the coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind velocities are
averaging around 550 km/s with Bz fluctuations of +/- 5 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at mostly quiet conditions for days one and two
(24-25 July). Quiet to unsettled levels are expected for day three
(26 July) due to the return of a recurrent high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Jul 068
Predicted 24 Jul-26 Jul 068/069/070
90 Day Mean 23 Jul 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jul 018/024
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jul 006/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jul-26 Jul 005/005-005/005-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jul-26 Jul
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01