Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Jan 2008

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Jan 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 023 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Jan 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remained spotless. A slow-moving coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen in LASCO imagery off the southeast limb beginning at 23/0042Z. This event appears to have originated from behind the limb.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain at quiet levels for the next three days (24 – 26 January).

III. Event Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Jan 071
• Predicted 24 Jan-26 Jan 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 23 Jan 074

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Jan 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Jan 002/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Jan-26 Jan 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Jan-26 Jan

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 05/05/05
• Minor storm 01/01/01
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01