Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 February 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Region 1161 (N13W69)
produced the period’s only C-class event, a C1 at 23/1223Z. Both
Region 1161 and Region 1162 (N18W73) have decayed significantly and
have a simple Beta magnetic classification.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (24-26 February). There is a chance for
an isolated C-class event from Region 1161 before it rotates off
the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet with an isolated unsettled
period at 23/1500-1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet on day one (24 February). Quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected on days two and three (25-26
February).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Feb 089
Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 23 Feb 087
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 005/005-007/008-007/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/15/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01