Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Feb 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Feb 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 944 (S03E61) retains its alpha magnetic configuration. Region 942 (S11W26) is in decay.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 24 February. Expect unsettled to active conditions, with isolated minor storm periods, on 25-26 February due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. There is a chance for isolated major storming at high latitudes on 25 February.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Feb 075
• Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 078/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 082

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 002/002
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 005/005-015/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/30/25
• Minor storm 05/20/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/35/30
• Minor storm 10/25/20
• Major-severe storm 01/15/10