Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Feb 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
February 24, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2005 Feb 23 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 054 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Feb 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 736 (N13W92) produced a
C2.6 flare at 23/0934Z as it rotated around the west limb. New
Regions 737 (S07W31) and 738 (S10E10) were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet. Solar wind speed at ACE increased
from approximately 365 km/s to 400 km/s. The IMF Bz remained
positive through the reporting period. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled on 24 February. On 25 February,
expect quiet to active conditions as a recurrent high speed stream
becomes geoeffective. On 26 February, expect unsettled to active
conditions with minor storm periods possible at higher latitudes.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

  • Class M 05/05/05
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

  • IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
  • Observed 23 Feb 085
  • Predicted 24 Feb-26 Feb 085/085/085
  • 90 Day Mean 23 Feb 100

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 22 Feb 003/004
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Feb 004/006
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Feb-26 Feb 008/012-012/015-012/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Feb-26 Feb

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 20/25/25
  • Minor storm 10/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 01/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 25/30/30
  • Minor storm 15/15/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/15

SpaceRef staff editor.