Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 December 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. The largest of the three
C-class flares observed during the period was a C3 from Region 1376
(N16W84) as it prepared to rotate off the visible disk. Rotating
onto the disk was new Region 1386 (S16E72), an Hsx type group with
alpha magnetic characteristics. The remaining regions were
magnetically simple and quiescent.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain
low with a slight chance for an M-class flare.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at mostly quiet levels for the next three days
(24-26 December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 10/05/05
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 138
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 140/140/140
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 144
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 004/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 000/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 006/005-006/005-006/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 10/10/20
Major-severe storm 05/05/10