Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Dec 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Dec 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Isolated B- and C-class flares
occurred. The largest flare was a C6/Sf from Region 1036 (S28W70) at
23/1017Z. Region 1036 showed no significant changes during the
period. Region 1038 (N15W69) gradually decayed during the period. No
new regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
during days 1 – 2 (24 – 25 December) with isolated C-class flares
expected. There will also be a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare. Activity is expected to decrease to very low levels on day 3
(26 December), once Regions 1036 and 1038 depart the visible disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels through the period.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at mostly quiet levels through the period (24 – 26
December).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
Class M 10/05/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Dec 078
Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 076/074/072
90 Day Mean 23 Dec 074
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 002/002
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/002
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01