Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Dec 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Dec 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 357 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Dec 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 838 (N17E20) increased in area to approximately 170 millionths.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec

• Class M 05/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Dec 093
• Predicted 24 Dec-26 Dec 090/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 23 Dec 083

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Dec 004/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Dec 002/007
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Dec-26 Dec 005/007-005/010-005/007

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Dec-26 Dec

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/15/15
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/25/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01