Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 August 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. The largest event in the
last 24 hours was a B5 event that originated from Region 1271
(N17W29) at 23/0125Z. This region has shown separation and decayed
penumbra in its trailer spots. It is now classified as a Eki spot
group with a Beta magnetic configuration. Regions 1272 (S21W20),
1274 (N19E30) and 1275 (N08E39) showed various amounts of decay. New
Region 1276 (N20E48) was numbered today.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class event from Region
1271 for the next three days (24-26 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (24-26 August).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 104
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 105/110/110
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 097
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01