Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 August 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Aug 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been at very low levels for the past
24 hours. No flares were observed during the period and no new
regions were numbered.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low levels for the next three days (24-26 August).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on day one (24 August),
at unsettled to active levels with a chance for isolated minor storm
periods on day two (25 August), and at quiet to unsettled levels on
day three (26 August). The increase in activity is due to a
recurrent coronal hole high-speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 075
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 077
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 000/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 004/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 010/010-015/015-010/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/35/25
Minor storm 05/10/10
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 25/35/30
Minor storm 05/15/10
Major-severe storm 01/10/05