Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Aug 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately quiet for 24 August. Quiet to unsettled conditions, with isolated active periods, are expected on 25-26 August in response to a recurrent coronal hole.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Aug 071
• Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 070/070/070
• 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 071

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 002/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 002/003
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 005/008-010/015-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/20/20
• Minor storm 05/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 15/25/25
• Minor storm 05/15/15
• Major-severe storm 01/05/05