Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Aug 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Aug 23 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 905 (S08E47), the only sunspot group on the visible disk, produced isolated B-class flares. This active region exhibited little change this period and maintains a reversed polarity magnetic structure.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare from Region 905.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed declined from a maximum of near 500 km/s to end the period at 420 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

• Class M 05/05/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 23 Aug 078
• Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 017/017
• Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008
• Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 008/008-005/008-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 30/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/30/30
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05