Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Aug 2005

By SpaceRef Editor
August 23, 2005
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2005 Aug 23 2203 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 798 (S12W75)
produced an M2/Sf flare at 23/1444 UTC. As in previous M flares in
this region, it was associated with significant radio output that
included type II/IV sweep activity and a CME.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 798 could produce another M-class flare as it
rotates around the west limb.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event remains in progress: start time 22/2040 UTC and
preliminary maximum of 330 pfu at 23/1045 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled until the arrival of the first CME
that occurred early on Aug 22. Storm conditions are possible on Aug
24 and 25 due to CME activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

  • Class M 50/30/10
  • Class X 05/01/01
  • Proton 90/50/10
  • PCAF in progress

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 23 Aug 112
  • Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 105/100/090
  • 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 095

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 007/012
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/009
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/030-020/030-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/50
  • Minor storm 20/20/20
  • Major-severe storm 05/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 60/60/60
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

SpaceRef staff editor.