Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Aug 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
August 23, 2003
Filed under , ,

SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Activity was at very low levels. Region 441 (N11E19)
produced a B6 flare at 23/0016Z. Region 441 has shown some growth
in area coverage during the past twenty-four hours. Region 436
(N07W12) remains relatively unchanged from yesterday. At around
23/0100Z a 15 degree solar filament lifted off at N09W47. New
Region 444 (N09E60) was numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels. Regions 436 and 441 have the potential for
C-class flare and a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels.
Solar wind speed was near 775 km/s for most of the period and Bz was
predominantly southward with peak values near -6 nT. For a fifteen
hour period today, activity was at minor storm levels with one
period at major storm levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels. Active to minor
storm levels are expected on day one as coronal hole high speed
stream effects continue. By day two and day three high speed stream
effects should begin to diminish with unsettled to active levels

III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

  • Class M 15/15/20
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 23 Aug 120
  • Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 120/122/125
  • 90 Day Mean 23 Aug 127

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 025/043
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 045/045
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 025/035-020/030-020/030

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 50/50/50
  • Minor storm 30/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 05/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 35/45/45
  • Minor storm 45/40/40
  • Major-severe storm 20/15/15

SpaceRef staff editor.