Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 Aug 2002

By SpaceRef Editor
August 23, 2002
Filed under , ,

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 235 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Aug 2002

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity has been high. There have been numerous
low level M-class events during the period from Regions 69 (S08W85),
83 (S19W15), 85 (S09E16) and 87 (S07E60). The most impressive was
an M1/2n at 23/0549 UTC from Region 85 with an associated Type II
radio sweep. A Type IV radio sweep was observed among several
reported events at 23/1415 UTC. New Region 88 (S22W28) was numbered

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Regions 69, 83, 85, and 87 all have potential to
produce a major flare.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. The greater than
10 MeV proton event that began at 22/0440 UTC ended at 23/0040 UTC.
The event reached a maximum of 36 pfu at 22/0940 UTC.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 24-25 August as a possible
result of the M5 event observed at 22/0157 UTC. Quiet to unsettled
conditions are expected for 26 August.

III. Event Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
Class M 75/75/75
Class X 20/20/20
Proton 20/20/20
PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Aug 225
Predicted 24 Aug-26 Aug 215/210/210
90 Day Mean 23 Aug 170

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Aug 008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Aug 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Aug-26 Aug 020/025-015/015-010/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Aug-26 Aug
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/30/20
Minor storm 15/15/05
Major-severe storm 05/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/35/25
Minor storm 20/20/10
Major-severe storm 10/10/01

SpaceRef staff editor.