Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 23 April 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Apr 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 113 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Apr 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 1195 (S16E14) produced
several impulsive C-class flares during the period. This spot group
maintained a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration, though also showing
signs of decay with a decrease in area. Region 1193 (N17W57) was
stable and quiet during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be low
with a chance for a M-class x-ray event in the next 3 days (24-26
April).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with the exception of an
isolated period of active conditions between 23/09Z and 23/12Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next 3 days (24-26 April).
III. Event Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
Class M 30/30/30
Class X 05/05/05
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 23 Apr 119
Predicted 24 Apr-26 Apr 118/115/115
90 Day Mean 23 Apr 105
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Apr 003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Apr 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Apr-26 Apr 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Apr-26 Apr
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01