Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 September 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The largest
event of the period was a long duration B9 x-ray event at 22/2010Z
from an area of enhanced emission located behind the east limb near
S15. New Region 1577 (N08E43) emerged on the disk as a stable,
4-spot bipolar group. Region 1575 (N08E24) increased in magnetic
complexity to a beta-gamma configuration. The remainder of the disk
and limb was quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
predominately low levels all three days of the forecast period (23 –
25 September). A slight chance for M-class activity exists for day
three as active regions are expected to rotate onto the visible
disk.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. ACE satellite
measurements indicated a steady decline in wind velocity from about
500 km/s to near 400 km/s while the Bz component of the
interplanetary magnetic field did not vary much beyond +/- 4 nT.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet levels all three days of the
forecast period (23 – 25 September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 05/05/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 125
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 125/125/130
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 123
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 004/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-004/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/05/05
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01