Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 September 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. There were
numerous B-class events, most of which were produced by Region 1109
(N22E67). Region 1109 is a Dko group with a beta magnetic
configuration and has increased in size over the last 24 hours.
Region 1108 (S30W09) is now an Hhx alpha group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class events for
the next three days (23-25 September).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels during the past 24
hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on days one and two (23-24
September) due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. Day
three (25 September) is expected to be mostly unsettled.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 085
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 088/088/088
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 079
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 002/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/018-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 35/35/25
Minor storm 05/05/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 40/40/30
Minor storm 10/10/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01