Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Sep 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were two x-ray
events during the past 24 hours, a B3 at 1057Z and a B4 at 2041Z.
Both of these events originated from Region 1026 (S29E57) which has
rotated into view as a small, C-type sunspot group with a simple
beta magnetic configuration. Region 1027 (N24E31) emerged on the
disk today and appears to be a small D-type region in a simple beta
magnetic configuration.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (23-25 September). There is a slight
chance for an isolated C-class event.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Sep 075
Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 077/077/077
90 Day Mean 22 Sep 068
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 005/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/15
Minor storm 01/01/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01