Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2008
Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2008
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels. There is a chance for isolated C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. A brief period of unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 – 25 September).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
- Class M 01/01/01
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Sep 069
- Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 070/070/070
- 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 066
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 001/002
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 10/10/10
- Minor storm 01/01/01
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01