Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2008

By SpaceRef Editor
September 22, 2008
Filed under , , ,

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2008 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2008

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were observed during the past 24 hours. New Region 1002 (N25W27) emerged on the disk as an eight-spot Dso Beta group with new Cycle 24 polarity.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at predominately very low levels. There is a chance for isolated C-class activity with continued growth from new Region 1002.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was predominately quiet. A brief period of unsettled activity was observed early on 22 September between 0000Z and 0600Z due to a solar sector boundary crossing.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet throughout the forecast period (23 – 25 September).

III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

  • Class M 01/01/01
  • Class X 01/01/01
  • Proton 01/01/01
  • PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Sep 069
  • Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 070/070/070
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 066

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 001/002
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/005
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 10/10/10
  • Minor storm 01/01/01
  • Major-severe storm 01/01/01

SpaceRef staff editor.