Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. There were no spots observed on the solar disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active on 23 September, with isolated minor storm conditions at high latitudes. The elevated activity is due to the continued influence of a recurrent coronal hole. Quiet to unsettled conditions should return for 24-25 September as the high speed solar wind stream subsides.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Sep 067
• Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 070

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 007/009
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 010/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/015-010/015-005/008

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 35/20/10
• Minor storm 10/10/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/15
• Minor storm 15/15/05
• Major-severe storm 05/05/01