Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2005

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. Updated 2005 Sep 22 2204 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 810 (N09E07) remains the only spotted region on the visible disk.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low to low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

• Class M 10/10/10
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Sep 084
• Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 080/080/080
• 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 093

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 003/005
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 005/010
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 005/010-005/010-005/010

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 05/05/05