Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Sep 22 2200 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A C3.2 flare occurred from
Region 673 (S13W17) at 22/0920Z. Region 672 (N04, L=351) has
rotated around the west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled with minor storming
levels from 1200Z to 1500Z. Active levels were observed from 1500Z
to 1800Z. The minor storm levels were attributed to a CME from a
M-class flare on 19 September. Solar wind speed increased to
approximately 530 km/s from 1850Z to 2045Z. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period
possible.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
- Class M 05/05/05
- Class X 01/01/01
- Proton 05/05/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Sep 091
- Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 090/090/090
- 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 110
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep 006/009
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 016/020
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 008/015-005/010-005/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 25/20/20
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
- Active 30/25/25
- Minor storm 15/15/15
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
