Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
September 22, 2003
Filed under ,

SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Region 464 (N06E49) continues to be the largest group on the disk
and showed slow growth during the past 24 hours. The region’s
magnetic structure is mostly bipolar, but there is some weak
polarity mixing in the central part of the group, giving it a
beta-gamma classification. New Region 465 (S02E50) was assigned
today and is stacked just below Region 464. New Region 466 (S04E72)
rotated into view today and appears to be a small, simple sunspot
group. A CME was observed at 21/2130 UTC in LASCO-C2 coronagraph
data and was centered very close to the solar north pole. The lack
of corresponding disk signatures suggest that this was a back-sided

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.
There continues to be, however, a slight chance for an isolated
M-class flare from Region 464.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels during the past
24 hours. There was an interval of quiet to unsettled level activity
from 21/2100 UTC through 22/0300 UTC, but conditions became
disturbed (unsettled to active) from 0300 UTC through the end of the
day. The activity is being driven by a continuing high speed solar
wind stream associated with a coronal hole. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days. Conditions
should be predominantly unsettled by the third day as the high speed
wind stream is expected to be significantly reduced by that time.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M 15/15/15
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Sep 123
  • Predicted 23 Sep-25 Sep 125/120/120
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Sep 120

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • served Afr/Ap 21 Sep 019/021
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep 015/020
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep 015/020-015/020-015/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/10

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 30/30/30
  • Minor storm 25/25/25
  • Major-severe storm 20/20/20

SpaceRef staff editor.