Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Sep 2002

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 265 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Sep 2002

IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. A few C-class flares occurred.
Region 119 (S14W49) remains the largest, most complex sunspot group
on the disk but appears to have simplified somewhat. Four new
Regions were numbered: 129 (N25E54), 130 (N06E52), 131 (S07E35), and
132 (N18W01).

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 119 seems to be the most capable area for
M-class activity.

IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.

III.  Event Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green

IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Sep 160
Predicted   23 Sep-25 Sep  160/160/160
90 Day Mean        22 Sep 178

V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Sep  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Sep-25 Sep  008/008-008/012-008/008

VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Sep-25 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01