Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 October 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was moderate. Region 1314 (N29W93)
produced a long duration M1 flare at 22/1110Z associated with a CME
off the west limb that is not expected to be geoeffective. A
disappearing filament was observed at approximately 22/0058Z. An
associated CME appears to be Earth-directed but further analysis is
necessary to determine timing as images become available. New Region
1330 (N04E66) was numbered today and is considered a Dso-beta type
group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
with M-class activity likely for the next three days (23-25
October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days (23-25 October).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 60/55/55
Class X 10/05/05
Proton 05/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 164
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 160/160/155
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 122
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/005
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/004
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/05/10
Minor storm 01/01/01
Major-severe storm 01/01/01