Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 October 2010

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2010 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2010
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Regions 1113 (N16W40),
1115 (S30W22), and 1117 (N23E36) were stable and quiet. A CME was
observed off the Northwest quadrant on LASCO C3 Coronagraph
beginning around 22/0100Z. This event is likely associated with a
disappearing filament at N19W07 at 21/1506Z.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is forecast to be very
low with a slight chance for a C-class flare during the next 3 days
(23-25 October).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet with isolated periods of
unsettled conditions between 22/0600-0900Z and 22/1800-2100Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
forecast to be mostly unsettled to active on day 1 (23 October) due
to coronal hole effects in progress. Unsettled to active conditions
with a chance for minor storming are expected on days 2 and 3 (24-25
October) from the affects of a second favorably positioned coronal
hole.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 082
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 082/082/082
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 081
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 001/003
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 007/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 010/012-015/018-012/012
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 50/60/50
Minor storm 15/25/15
Major-severe storm 01/05/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 50/60/50
Minor storm 20/30/20
Major-severe storm 05/10/05