Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Oct 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares were detected.
The visible disk was spotless.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
Geomagnetic field activity was at mostly quiet to unsettled levels.
An isolated period of minor storm levels was observed at 22/1200Z. A
geomagnetic sudden impulse occurred at 22/0019Z (11 nT, as measured
by the Boulder USGS magnetometer). This activity was associated with
a faint partial-halo CME which was observed around 17/1900Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be quiet on day one (23 October). Quiet to unsettled
levels are expected on days two and three (24 – 25 October) in
response to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF Green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Oct 072
Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 072/072/072
90 Day Mean 22 Oct 069
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/005-008/008-008/008
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 05/20/15
Minor storm 01/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01