Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Oct 2007

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2007 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2007

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. The visible solar disk remains spotless.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels on 23 October. Activity is anticipated to increase to unsettled to active levels late on 24 October and continue through the forecast period. Minor storm periods at middle latitudes and major storm levels at high latitudes are possible on 24 and 25 October due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF Green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Oct 067
• Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 067/067/067
• 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 068

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 005/004
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 005/008-010/015-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/15/20
• Minor storm 05/10/15
• Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes

• Active 10/20/30
• Minor storm 05/15/25
• Major-severe storm 01/10/15