Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Oct 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Oct 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been very low. Region 917 (S05W46) now has a magnetic classification of Beta-gamma.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field has been unsettled to active with one period of minor storming. Solar wind speed remains elevated though it has been slowly and steadily decreasing. Its current speed is approximately 550 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active due to a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream. An isolated period of minor storming is possible.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct

• Class M 15/15/15
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Oct 076
• Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 075/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 077

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 010/015
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 012/012
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 008/008-004/005-004/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 20/20/20
• Minor storm 10/10/10
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 35/25/25
• Minor storm 30/15/15
• Major-severe storm 10/05/05