Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Oct 2003
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2003 Oct 22 2240 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2003
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity increased to high levels today. The
disk and limb were very active during the period. Region 486
(S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class
flares over the interval. The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that
occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7’s. Region 484
(N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC.
Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT
imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME
that appears to be Earth directed. Magnetic field remains
extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta
structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster.
A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of
producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
today. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the
forecast period. The partial halo CME from today is expected to
arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of
major storming. Day three should see a return to unsettled to
active conditions.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
- Class M 70/70/70
- Class X 30/30/30
- Proton 15/15/20
- PCAF yellow
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Oct 154
- Predicted 23 Oct-25 Oct 160/165/170
- 90 Day Mean 22 Oct 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct 028/039
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct 020/038
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 020/030-040/045-015/025
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 40/30/30
- Minor storm 25/40/20
- Major-severe storm 10/25/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 45/25/40
- Minor storm 35/40/25
- Major-severe storm 15/30/10
