Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2009

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2009 Nov 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2009
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. No flares occurred during
the past 24 hours. Region 1033 (N18W05) was the only spotted group
on the disk but appeared to have decayed to spotless plage by the
end of the period.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet during the past 24 hours. Solar wind
speeds were somewhat elevated during the past 24 hours with
velocities ranging between 460-560 km/s. Nonetheless the
interplanetary magnetic field was generally weak (typically 3-4 nT)
and the fluctuations in the southward component, Bz, were also weak
(typically between +/- 3 nT).
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet for the next three days (23-25 November).
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 Nov 076
Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 075/075/075
90 Day Mean 22 Nov 072
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 006/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/10
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01