Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2006

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2006 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2006

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was briefly at high levels today.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 23 November. On 24 and 25 November, active to minor storm periods are possible due to a coronal hole high speed stream.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

• Class M 01/01/01
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Nov 077
• Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 070/075/075
• 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 079

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 001/001
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 001/004
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/008-012/020-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 15/30/25
• Minor storm 05/15/10
• Major-severe storm 01/05/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 20/30/35
• Minor storm 10/30/25
• Major-severe storm 01/20/15