Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2005

Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
Issued: 2005 Nov 22 2200 UTC
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2005

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 822 (S07W51) produced a B7.7 flare at 22/1516 UTC. Region 824 (S12E46) has remained quiescent. Region 823 (S15W76) is now a plage region without spots. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels with a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 822.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

• Class M 20/15/05
• Class X 01/01/01
• Proton 01/01/01
• PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

• Observed 22 Nov 093
• Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 095/090/085
• 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 085

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

• Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 002/003
• Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 003/005
• Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 005/005-005/005-005/005

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

• Active 10/10/10
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01

B. High Latitudes

• Active 25/25/25
• Minor storm 05/05/05
• Major-severe storm 01/01/01