Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2004
Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
Updated 2004 Nov 22 2210 UTC
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 327 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2004
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was low. A long duration event C1.1
flare occurred at 22/0757. SXI showed the primary contributions to
the event from regions on the east and west limb.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low.
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Isolated active periods
were observed at mid latitudes between 0600 to 0900 UTC, and high
latitudes between 0300 to 0900 UTC. Solar wind speed has declined
from 600 km/s to 500 km/s during this reporting period. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. On 25 November, there is a
possibility of active periods due to the effects of a coronal hole
high speed stream.
III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
- Class M 10/10/10
- Class X 05/05/05
- Proton 01/01/01
- PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
- Observed 22 Nov 106
- Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 110/115/115
- 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 106
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
- Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 009/016
- Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 008/011
- Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 004/008-004/008-008/010
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov
A. Middle Latitudes
- Active 15/15/20
- Minor storm 05/05/10
- Major-severe storm 01/01/05
B. High Latitudes
- Active 15/15/25
- Minor storm 10/10/10
- Major-severe storm 05/05/05
