Status Report

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 Nov 2003

By SpaceRef Editor
November 22, 2003
Filed under , ,

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.

Updated 2003 Nov 22 2210 UTC

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity

SDF Number 326 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Nov 2003

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. Regions 501 (N03W44), 507
(N09E22), and 508 (S17E34) all produced C-class flares during the
period. No significant development was observed in any active
region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Regions 501, 507, and 508 may produce isolated major
flares.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The 10
MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit continues at enhanced levels
just below the 10 pfu threshold.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels, with isolated minor storm
conditions on 23 November due to the effects of high speed solar
wind streams associated with a coronal hole moving into geoeffective
position.

III. Event Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

  • Class M 60/60/60
  • Class X 10/10/10
  • Proton 05/05/05
  • PCAF yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux

  • Observed 22 Nov 176
  • Predicted 23 Nov-25 Nov 180/190/190
  • 90 Day Mean 22 Nov 131

V. Geomagnetic A Indices

  • Observed Afr/Ap 21 Nov 018/039
  • Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Nov 010/025
  • Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Nov-25 Nov 020/020-015/020-015/020

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Nov-25 Nov

A. Middle Latitudes

  • Active 30/35/35
  • Minor storm 20/15/15
  • Major-severe storm 10/05/05

B. High Latitudes

  • Active 40/40/40
  • Minor storm 30/30/30
  • Major-severe storm 10/10/05

SpaceRef staff editor.