Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 May 2012

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2012 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 143 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2012
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 1484 (N10W43) had
slight growth in its intermediate spots. Region 1482 (N14W71) had
slight decay in its trailing spots. New Region 1488 (N12E55) was
numbered today. At approximately 22/0205Z, a filament eruption was
observed in the SW quadrant near center disk. STEREO B COR 2
imagery showed a faint CME that appeared to be slightly south of the
ecliptic beginning at 22/0609Z. Further analysis is on-going to
determine the geoeffectiveness of this CME.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low with a slight chance for an M-class flare for the
forecast period (23 – 25 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Early on 22 May, solar
wind speed at the ACE spacecraft increased from approximately 360
km/s to 420 km/s. Temperature and total magnetic field also
displayed a slight increase as a coronal hole high speed stream
moved into geoeffective position. The geomagnetic field responded
with active periods during the intervals 22/0300 – 0600Z and
22/1800 – 2100Z. Minor storm intervals were observed at high
latitudes from 22/1200 – 1800Z.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a continued chance for active
periods on day 1 (23 May) due to coronal hole high speed stream (CH
HSS) effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on day 2
(24 May) as the CH HSS effects wane. Mostly quiet conditions are
expected on day 3 (25 May).
III. Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 10/10/10
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 121
Predicted 23 May-25 May 120/120/115
90 Day Mean 22 May 116
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 007/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 015/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 013/014-007/008-004/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 25/10/05
Minor storm 15/01/01
Major-severe storm 05/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 30/15/10
Minor storm 20/05/05
Major-severe storm 15/01/01