Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity 22 May 2011

:Product: Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity
:Issued: 2011 May 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2011
IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. All spotted regions on
the visible disk were small, magnetically simple and generally
quiescent. New Region 1220 (N14W65) emerged today as a small
bipolar group.
IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very
low for the next three days (23-25 May) with a slight chance for a
C-class event on day one (23 May).
IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain predominantly quiet for the next three days.
III. Event Probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green
IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 22 May 085
Predicted 23 May-25 May 085/085/085
90 Day Mean 22 May 108
V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 May 004/004
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 May 005/005
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 May-25 May 005/005-005/005-005/005
VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 May-25 May
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 10/10/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01
B. High Latitudes
Active 15/15/15
Minor storm 05/05/05
Major-severe storm 01/01/01